Bill Gates ain’t no Moses: Why tablets won’t take off
Bill Gates said in his Comdex keynote address this week that he hopes a lot of people in the audience will be taking notes on a Tablet PC by next year.
I don’t see it. If it takes off at all, expect to see the Tablet PC relegated to home users.
Why? Because businesses don’t need tablets. Hardware only succeeds where there’s an ecological niche for it, and right now there isn’t one for tablets. Those for whom portability is paramount are already well served by Palm OS devices and Pocket PCs. Those who need full client functionality in a portable package have a number of notebooks that weigh less than four pounds to choose from.
What advantage does a tablet have over what’s already out there? Handwriting recognition? Give me a break. It already exists on the Pocket PC, and I don’t know anyone who uses it. Maybe that’s because I’ve yet to see a handwriting recognition application that gets even 90 percent of my words right.
Besides, writing any reasonable amount of text by hand is glacially slow compared to typing it. Sure, you can add a keyboard to a tablet PC, but then what have you got? An awkward laptop computer.
Wireless connectivity? That’s a plus all right, but put a wireless network adapter in your notebook instead. Now you’ve got portability plus power, and a wireless NIC, for about $100, which is far less expensive than a whole new client platform that won’t come in much under $2,000.
E-book reading? We’re grasping at straws here. There are plenty of e-book clients and software environments available now, and no one is clamoring for more.
No, about the only advantage I see to the Tablet PC is that it fits nicely in your lap when you’re sitting with your legs crossed or folded under you. Don’t laugh–that’s not trivial. It means that a tablet PC is a natural client for anyone who wants to watch TV and surf the Web at the same time.
And who’s doing that? Families. Teenagers. Not IT staffers (except maybe you guys on the third shift).
OK, maybe there’s one more advantage, and it’s arguable. With a tablet PC, you’ll no longer need a mouse or TrackPoint nubbin–you can point to items directly on the screen with the same implement you use to enter data. If that’s a big issue for you, stay tuned; all the usual ultralight hardware vendors, including Toshiba, Fujitsu, and NEC, are said to be working on tablet prototypes.
I’m usually willing to try any new gadget in the hope that it will help me work better and smarter. I haven’t tried a tablet yet, but I don’t see it helping anyone outside of the kind of vertical industries that already have adopted handheld PCs.
So don’t take the advent of the Tablet PC as a commandment for your organization. But don’t be surprised, either, if Microsoft makes the official announcement at Mount Sinai. After all, would you put it past them?
Articles | Administrator | 
Wednesday, November 14, 2001 12:00 pm
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